
27 Dec The Future of Work: Moving Beyond Simple Predictions
Predictions about the future of work often miss the mark, not because forecasting techniques are poor, but because they fail to consider the full spectrum of possibilities, according to Deloitte‘s lead partner Kellie Nuttall. Historical examples demonstrate this pattern clearly: just as Christopher Columbus mistook America for the Indies, workplace predictions frequently fall short of reality.
Nuttall points to economist John Maynard Keynes’ 1930s prediction of a 15-hour work week within a few generations. Despite massive technological advancement, workers still maintain standard 40-hour weeks. This illustrates her crucial point: technology alone doesn’t determine the future—human decisions do.
The challenge organizations and global mobility specialists face isn’t about improving prediction models but rethinking how they frame possibilities. When examining the impact of new technologies like generative AI, leaders must look beyond current trends to see the full range of potential outcomes and decision points that will shape reality.
The pandemic-driven shift to remote work offers an illuminating example. Organizations needed to determine whether this represented a simple change in work location or a fundamental shift from physical to digital work. The distinction matters significantly, Nuttall explains. Physical work centers on tangible tools and in-person interactions, while digital work exists in a network of digital media, freeing workers from location constraints.
Work systems versus automation
Traditional models of workplace evolution assume that automation displaces lower skills, forcing workers into continuous upskilling cycles. However, Nuttall’s research suggests this view is too narrow. Instead of focusing solely on individual skills, organizations should consider entire work systems. For instance, flying a commercial airliner isn’t just about the pilot’s skills—it’s about an integrated system including pilots, instruments, air traffic control, and various supporting networks.
New technology, particularly AI, introduces different possibilities for human-machine collaboration. Rather than simply automating tasks, AI creates new relationships between humans and technology. Nuttall’s research identifies several emerging patterns in this space, from AI supervisors allocating tasks to collaborative decision-making systems where humans and machines work together on complex problems.
Organizations face critical choices in how they implement these technologies. Workplace surveillance technology, for example, presents a fundamental choice: implementation could lead to stricter control systems or enhance worker autonomy and job quality. The outcome depends not on the technology itself but on how organizations choose to use it.
Nuttall’s framework for navigating this future emphasizes deliberate decision-making. Organizations should foster optionality by considering multiple interpretations of technological change, make small, diverse bets to learn about potential futures, and develop institutional knowledge that includes different ways of framing challenges.
Benefits get absorbed into business as usual
The research particularly highlights how the productivity impact of recent innovations has been modest compared to historical transformations like electricity or automobiles. This isn’t necessarily due to technological limitations but rather approaches to implementation. Without deliberate consideration of how organizations want to use technology, benefits often get absorbed into business as usual.
The four-day work week exemplifies this dynamic. While technically possible for decades, its implementation requires deliberate societal and organizational choices. Similarly, the benefits of AI and other emerging technologies won’t automatically materialize—they depend on conscious decisions about how organizations want to shape their future workplace.
The research particularly notes how organizations must move beyond simple adaptations to truly reimagine their approach to work. As Nuttall observes, and recent data confirms, no company is immune to necessary decisions about where, how, and what work will be done as the future unfolds. The traditional way of doing business is no longer viable.
A critical insight from Nuttall’s analysis aligns with emerging evidence: according to Dell Technologies, 85% of jobs that will exist in 2030 haven’t been invented yet. This reinforces her argument that organizations must focus less on predicting specific outcomes and more on developing adaptable frameworks for decision-making.
Feedback-driven growth
The research emphasizes how successful organizations working with global mobility specialists for global recruitment will need to take an “Always-On Strategy” approach, continuously bridging the gap between current and desired business outcomes.
This aligns with Nuttall’s framework of making deliberate, conscious choices rather than simply reacting to technological change. Organizations must transform their strategy from a static formulation to a feedback-driven engine for growth.
As Nuttall concludes, rather than trying to counteract uncertainty, companies that will succeed in the future of work are already building foundations well-prepared for change, striving to create uniquely sustainable futures that work in harmony with inevitable global shifts. They will be agile, adaptable, and graceful in the face of challenges, focusing not on perfect prediction but on conscious choice and deliberate action.
Success in this evolving landscape doesn’t require perfect prediction but rather maintaining awareness of multiple possibilities and making conscious choices about which directions to pursue. Organizations that understand this principle will be better positioned to shape their future rather than simply reacting to it.
As Nuttall concludes in her analysis, the key to success lies not in trying to predict exactly where technology will take us, but in understanding the choices it presents and making deliberate decisions about which paths to explore.
The future of work isn’t a predetermined destination—it’s shaped by the series of choices organizations make about how to use new capabilities.